John Fox belongs in a Fortune 500 Company, Not a Startup

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Bart Lorang

Author: Bart Lorang

@bartlorang

I just watched the Denver Broncos get beaten by the Baltimore Ravens in Double Overtime, 38-35.

As a lifelong Broncos fan, it was a sickening display of ultra-conservative, piss-poor decision making and irresponsible coaching by their head coach John Fox.

Risk vs. reward

The Broncos played like a conservative, risk-averse Fortune 500 company that worries about its stock price on a daily basis.

The Ravens played like a startup that had nothing to lose.

With 0:37 left in the first half and 3 timeouts, Fox decided to kneel on the ball.

Hey Fox – you know you have Peyton Manning on your team, right?

Fox’s only rationale for this decision can only be: “The chances are greater that the Ravens will score more points before the end of the half than the Broncos if we try to score here.”

If that sounds insane, it’s because it is.

With 2:38 left in the game and ahead by 7, Fox decides to run the ball three straight times.  In particular, on 3rd and 7, Fox chooses to run the ball.  It was ridiculously predictable and the Ravens stuffed the play.

Fox’s only rationale for this decision can be that an extra 40 seconds off the clock gives the Broncos a better chance to win than letting Peyton Manning try to get a first down and sealing the game.

What do the stats say?

Statistically, Fox was out of his mind.  Peyton leads the league with a 52% 3rd down conversion rate.   Whether it’s 1:15 left or 1:55 left in the game, the marginal probablistic difference of a Broncos victory given those two scenarios is MUCH MUCH less than 52%.

The stats say:  go for the first down.  Broncos history does too.

Hey Fox: Remember that famous 3rd and 6 in 1998 when John Elway hit Shannon Sharpe in Pittsburgh to clinch the AFC Championship? Didn’t think so.

Due to Fox’s poor decision making, the Ravens got the ball back and miraculously score to tie it up. Manning then gets the ball back with 0:31 on the clock and 2 timeouts at his own 20 yard line.

Fox instructs Manning to kneel on the ball.

Fox:  if 40 seconds is so important to the other side, why did you TWICE during the game take the ball out of the hands of your best player with about 40 seconds left?

Statistically, Fox made the incorrect decision in each of these instances.

Startups play to win

NFL Head Coaches worry about downside of a bad call more than they do upside of a good call.

It’s Fortune 500 type thinking – constantly mitigating risk and worrying about losing one’s job instead of trying to win the game.

It’s infuriating.

I’m glad I’m at a Startup.

Because our job is to go for it when others won’t.

  • L.U.

    Ironically, this was the exact conversation at my house, except we focused on the last offensive series for Denver in regulation. They ran the ball 5 straight plays when Baltimore had 9 in the box. With just one more first down, Flacco’s hail maryesque pass never happens.

    • http://fullcontact.com/ Bart Lorang

      Totally insane. I wish NFL coaches used statistics more. Bill Belichik gets this stuff. Others just don’t.

      • John

        I’m not a Broncos fan, but I said the same thing when they made these decisions. These coaches need to go to school, take a statistics class, and then make a decision.

        It’s inexplicable that in a sport of billions of dollars, they don’t understand this.

        • http://fullcontact.com/ Bart Lorang

          Completely agree. Baseball has started to get this in the last decade. Football is still well behind the curve.

  • http://twitter.com/priviteradan Daniel Privitera

    Your breakdown on this is so true and I was thinking exactly the same thing. He was coaching the game not to lose, rather than to win.

    I couldn’t believe his irrational thinking of putting more faith in the Ravens defense than Peyton Manning.

    That 3 and 7 run was the worst decisionof the game. Statistical probability doesn’t support The Ravens striking an epic play to tie and eventually win the game

    In this analogy , you’re correct Fox acted like a fortune 500 company, and the Ravens played like a startup with nothing to lose.

    That lack of faith in Peyton Manning and poor clock and play management certainly indicate that playing not to lose never works

  • http://twitter.com/mikeurbonas Mike Urbonas

    Actually, a Fortune 500 CEO would at least learn from the past! Instead John Fox inexplicably channeled his inner “Super Bowl 36 John Madden” – watch *and* listen:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUFbjCD2taw

    • http://fullcontact.com/ Bart Lorang

      Ha! Good point.

  • craigtaflin

    I love the analogy!

  • david scarlett

    Ain’t i so. The worst ever.

  • http://twitter.com/patrickRm101 Patrick Russell

    Brian Burke with @adv_nfl_stats with some analysis of Fox’s calls. He played the math more than we’d probably want to admit. He played regulation well and screwed up in OT. http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/john_fox_broncos_ravens_did_the_coach_s_risk_averse_approach_cost_denver.html

    • http://fullcontact.com/ Bart Lorang

      Analysis is off. Ravens had no timeouts. Peyton Manning converts third and 7s at higher rate than league average 42%.

      Brian still indicates kneeling twice was a dumb decision but then rationalizes it with other reasons. Odds were there.

  • http://www.fullcontact.com/ Kipp Chambers

    And at the press conference Fox said he’d make that call 10 out of 10 times if he had to do it again.

    https://twitter.com/bylindsayhjones/status/290896770001678336

    Argh.